الگوی ساختاری-تفسیری عوامل تأثیرگذار بر توسعه‌ی تاب‌آوری روستاییان غرب دریاچه ارومیه در برابر تغییر اقلیم (با تأکید بر خشک‌سالی)

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه ارومیه

2 دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

روستاها، به‌عنوان قلب تولیدی جوامع مبتنی بر معیشت کشاورزی، ازجمله زیست‌بوم‌های زنده‌ای هستند که در شرایط بحرانی خشک‌سالی خسارات عدیده‌ای را متحمل می‌شوند. از طرفی دیگر، توجه به راهبرد‌های ظرفیت‌سازی اجتماعات محلی (ساکنان مناطق روستایی) در مواجهه با بحران و ارتقای ظرفیت‌های آنان در بازیابی شرایط خود (راهبرد‌های تاب‌آورانه) در برابر خشک‌سالی و رکود کشاورزی ناشی از آن حائز اهمیت فراوان است؛ لذا هدف از مطالعه‌ی حاضر، بررسی عوامل تأثیرگذار بر توسعه‌ی تاب‌آوری روستاییان غرب دریاچه‌ی ارومیه در برابر تغییر اقلیم (با تأکید بر خشک‌سالی) با استفاده از الگوی ساختاری-تفسیری است. جامعه‌ی آماری مطالعه‌ی حاضر را نخبگان محلی، کشاورزان پیشرو و سایر افراد ساکن در مناطق روستایی موردمطالعه که به نوعی مطلع محلی بودند (30 نفر)، تشکیل می‌دهند. گردآوری داده‌ها جهت بررسی عوامل تأثیرگذار بر توسعه‌ی تاب‌آوری به دو صورت اسنادی و پیمایشی صورت گرفت. ابزار پژوهش، پرسشنامه و مصاحبه بود. برای تجزیه‌وتحلیل ساختاری اطلاعات جمع‌آوری‌شده از نرم‌افزار میک‌مک استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش و نحوه‌ی توزیع و پراکنش متغیرهای استخراجی در صفحه‌ی پراکندگی نشان داد که سیستم موردمطالعه‌ ناپایدار است. همچنین بر اساس نتایج اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم 20 متغیر به‌عنوان عوامل کلیدی انتخاب شدند که از میان آن‌ها 12 عامل به معیار اقتصادی، 3 به معیار اجتماعی و 3 به معیار فنی مربوط شده و بیش‌ترین تأثیر را بر توسعه‌ی تاب‌آوری روستاییان ساکن در غرب دریاچه‌ی ارومیه در مقابل خشک‌سالی دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Interpretive Structural modeling of factors affecting the development of resilience to climate change (with emphasis on drought) of villagers in west of Urmia Lake

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Jamshidi 1
  • Aliakbar Anabestani 2
1
2
چکیده [English]

Abstract
Villages, as the productive heart of agricultural-based communities, are living ecosystems that suffer a lot of damage in times of drought crisis. It is important to pay attention to the strategies of capacity building of local communities (residents of rural areas) in the face of crisis and improve their capacity in restoring their conditions (resilient strategies) to drought and the resulting agricultural recession. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the factors affecting the development of resilience of villagers to climate change (especially to drought) in the west of Lake Urmia using a structural-interpretive model. The statistical population or research Participants of this study consists of local elites, leading farmers and other people living in the studied rural areas who were somehow local informants (they were 30 Participants). Data collection was performed to investigate the factors affecting resilience development in both documentary and survey form (interview). At first, we used an interview as the research tool in the first step to o collect effective variables and then cross-sectional questionnaire was used to investigate the interaction of variables in the structural analysis. The obtained data are analyzed in the MICMAC software. The results of the research and the distribution of the extracted variables on the desired matrix showed that the system is unstable. Also, based on the results of direct and indirect effectiveness, 20 variables were selected as key factors, of which 12 factors were related to economic criteria, 3 to social and 3 to technical criteria, that have a greatest effectiveness on the development of resilience to climate change (drought) of villagers in west of Urmia Lake.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Resilience
  • Interpretive structural modeling
  • Cross-sectional analysis
  • Drought
  • West of Lake Urmia
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