مطالعه‌ی آماری و ارزیابی عوامل مؤثر در تشدید زلزله بر اساس مدل‌های GWR و OLS (منطقه‌ی موردمطالعه: غرب استان کرمانشاه)

نویسندگان

دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران

چکیده

انسان از ابتدای حیات خود دائماً با تهدیدهای ژئومورفیک مواجه بوده و این مخاطرات، خسارت‌های جانی و مالی را در زیستگاه‌های انسانی به ویژه شهرها و روستاها برای جوامع انسانی به دنبال داشته است. یکی از این مخاطرات، زلزله است. نیمه‌ی غربی استان کرمانشاه ازجمله کانون‌های زلزله‌خیز کشور می‌باشد که در این پژوهش به عنوان منطقه‌ی موردمطالعه برگزیده شد. در این پژوهش جهت بررسی الگوی فضایی زلزله‌های رخ‌داده در قرن اخیر در منطقه‌ی موردمطالعه، داده‌های موردنیاز از سایت سازمان زمین‌شناسی ایالات متحده استخراج گردید. سپس در راستای سنجش نحوه‌ی توزیع فضایی داده‌ها از شاخص موران استفاده گردید. همچنین جهت ارتباط بین کاربری‌های اراضی و کانون‌های زلزله از مدل‌های رگرسیونی OLS و GWR استفاده شد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که در دوره‌ی مورد بررسی از 173 زلزله‌ی رخ‌داده 22 مورد بیش از 5 ریشتر قدرت داشته‌اند. الگوی توزیع متغیر عمق زلزله‌های رخداده با استفاده از آماره‌ی موران از نوع الگوی خوشه‌ای بوده و با توجه به بالا بودن میزان P-value (49/0) و پایین بودن Z (68/0-) خودهمبستگی فضایی را برای این پارامتر تأیید می‌کند. طبق مدل OLS تمام متغیرهای مورد استفاده متغیرهای اصلی و تاثیرگذار بوده‌اند، اما نزدیکی به گسل بیش‌ترین نقش را دارا می‌باشد. لکن عدد VIF (5/7) به‌‌دست‌آمده برای متغیرها نشان‌دهنده‌ی این است که احتیاج به بررسی متغیرهای مستقل بیش‌تری وجود دارد، اما طبق مدل GWR مقدار مربعات باقی‌مانده‌ی تعدیل‌شده که نمایانگر شاخص خوبی انطباق می‌باشند، بیانگر کاهش خطا و افزایش دقت در برآورد متغیر وابسته و بیانگر برتری مدل رگرسیون وزن‌دار جغرافیایی نسبت به مدل حداقل مربعات است. همچنین نتایج حاکی از آن است که میزان شدت زلزله ارتباط مستقیمی ‌با شاخص‌های تراکم گسل، نزدیکی به گسل و ارتفاع دارد و کم‌ترین ارتباط را با کاربری‌های زمین‌های بایر و باغات و جنگل نشان داد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Statistical study and evaluation of effective factors in earthquake intensification based on GWR and OLS models (Study area: West of Kermanshah province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hadis Moradi
  • Abolghasem Amirahmadi
  • Leila Golimokhtari
  • Rahman Zandi
چکیده [English]

From the beginning of their lives, human beings have been constantly faced with geomorphic threats, and these risks have led to human and financial losses in human habitats, especially in cities and villages, for human societies. One of these risks is earthquakes. According to a report by the United Nations Planning Office in 2002, Iran ranked first among the countries in the world in terms of the number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 and one of the highest ranks in terms of earthquake risk and the number of casualties. The risk is assigned to itself. In this study, an attempt was made to express the effect of several indicators on the spatial pattern of earthquakes in the study area. The relationship between eight parameters including distance from faults, density of faults, slope, altitude points, distance from garden, distance from forest, distance from barren lands, distance from city, earthquake density and earthquake depth were investigated. For this analysis, two ordinary least squares regression models (OLS) and geographic weight regression model (GWR) were used. The results indicate that the magnitude of the earthquake is directly related to fault density indices; It has a distance from the fault and altitude and showed the least correlation with the distance from the barren lands.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Statistical Study
  • geographical weight regression model
  • OLS
  • west of Kermanshah
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