Journal of Arid Regions Geographic Studies

Journal of Arid Regions Geographic Studies

Meteorological Drought Assessment in Future Periods by Using of the Data of the Fifth Report of Climate Change (Case Study: Zabol and Shiraz Cities)

Authors
Saeide Hosseinabadi 1
Mostafa Yaghoobzadeh 2
Mahdi Amirabadizadeh 2
Mahdiye Foroozanmehr 1
1 Master student of Water Resources - Birjand University
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Science and Engineering - Birjand University
Abstract
One of the most important challenges of human being in recent years is water crisis and drought. So evaluating the situation of drought is very important in optimized water resource management. In current research, the data of precipitation for two future periods of 2025-2045 and 2065-2085 produced using results of 5 general circulation models of atmosphere (Csiromk3.6, Gfdlcm2, GISS-E2-R, Ipsl, and MIROC-ESM) and 4 scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). Next step was downscaling which carried out using WG-LARS model. The intensity of drought identified using Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) using different time periods (3, 12 and 48 months) for Zabol and Shiraz zones. Results of SPI index showed that the intensity of drought in 12 and 48 months periods has higher drought intensity in comparison with 3 months. Also results showed that drought in Zabol and Shiraz was higher due to results of ESM-MIROC model and RCP 8.5 Scenario. Comparison of scenarios also shows that in both study areas, the RCP 8.5 scenario in both future periods shows a drought in the average range compared to the baseline period.
Keywords
Drought intensity
GCM MODEL
SPI Index
WG-LARS model
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  • Receive Date 23 November 2022
  • Publish Date 21 June 2020