Journal of Arid Regions Geographic Studies

Journal of Arid Regions Geographic Studies

Foresight of the development of local planning of rural settlements with the approach of scenario planning Case study: East Azerbaijan province

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Department of Geography and Rural Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University, Tabriz, Iran
2 Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran
Abstract
Aim: Planning the local development of rural communities is an effective technique, particularly for sustainable resource allocation, which might be the end objective of a happy future. Development planning should achieve intended goals from the perspective of all regional spatial stakeholders. Methodologies vary in response to new issues. Scenario writing of rural local planning in East Azerbaijan province was used to fill the study gap from two subject and methodological perspectives.
Material & Method: The method of the present research is applied, descriptive-analytical, and mixed in terms of purpose, nature, and collection of information, respectively. Also, it is based on scenario planning. The panel consists of 30 experts and university professors in related fields. Scenario Wizard software extracted scenarios at three levels of consistent, strong, and weak probability.
Finding:  One strong scenario, 1675 weak scenarios, and 26 highly compatible scenarios were extracted. Each compatible scenario was displayed at three optimal, static, and critical probability levels.
Conclusion: The scenario "encouraging local governance through popular participation" was identified as the first compatible scenario, which is positive and promising. "The lack of significant participation of people and non-governmental institutions in local planning," as the next consistent scenario, indicates the absence of stakeholders or at least the weak role of people in rural planning in the future. "Basic lack of attention to the role of intermediate cities" was identified as the third consistent scenario.
Innovation: Filling the research gap from the point of view of background criticism and all from the methodological aspect to provide stable scenario(s) for the future of local planning from the point of view of spatial stakeholders.
Keywords

Alizadeh, A., Vahidi Motlagh, Vahid, Y Nazemi, A. (2009). Scenario planning or planning based on scenarios, Institute of International Energy Studies, second edition. [In Persian]
Anabestani, A., Javanshiri, M., & Ahmadi, S. (2019). Analyzing the Effects of Physical Planning on Preserving Villagers' Social Security (Case Study: Mashhad County). Physical Social Planning, 6(2), 11-29. https://doi.org/10.30473/psp.2019.6064 [In Persian]
Anabestani, A., Javanshiri, M., & Sojasi Qeydari, H. (2022). Explaining the Spatial-Physical Development Scenarios of Rural Settlements in Mashhad Urban Complex. Town and Country Planning, 14(1), 117-159. https://doi.org/10.22059/jtcp.2022.331801.670261[In Persian]
Andersen, A.D., Andersen, P. D. (2017). Foresighting for inclusive development, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 119: 227-236. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.007
Apostolopoulos, N., Konstantinos J. Chalvatzis, Panagiotis G. Liargovas, Robert Newbery, Elena Rokou (2020). The role of the expert knowledge broker in rural development: Renewable energy funding decisions in Greece, Journal of Rural Studies, 78: 96-106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2020.06.015
Azad Armaki, T., Jalaeipour, H., & Delpasand, K. (2018). Local Development Agents: Sociological analysis of forces effective in the development of the Piranshahr border region. Community Development (Rural and Urban Communities), 10(1), 1-28. https://doi.org/10.22059/jrd.2018.68405 [In Persian]
Bastosa, Carlos Aguirre & Weber, Matthias K. (2018). Foresight for shaping national innovation systems in developing economies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 128: 186-196. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.11.025
Behzadi, S., Rahnama, M., Javan, J. & Anabastani, A. (2022). Identifying key factors affecting tourism development with a foresight approach (case study: Yazd province), Geographical Studies of Dry Areas, 9(33): 37-52. http://journals.hsu.ac.ir/jarhs/article-1-1475-fa.html [In Persian]
Bell, W. (2015). Fundamentals of future studies, translated by: Mostafa Tagvi and Mohsen Mohaghegh, Tehran: Publications of Defense Industries Educational and Research Institute, Defense Science and Technology Future Research Center.
Botchway, K. (2001). Paradox of Empowerment: Reflections on a Case Study from Northern Ghana. World Development, 29(1): 135–153. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(00)00084-X
Castells, M. (2010). Information age: economy, society and culture: the end of the millennium, translated by Ahad Aliqolian & Afshin Khakbaz, first edition, Tehran: New Design Publications.
Chirisa, I. (2021). Opportunities in master and local planning for resilient rural settlement in Zimbabwe, Journal of Rural Studies, 86: 97–105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2021.05.026
Cornish, A. (2008). How Do Futurists Think? (Seven Key Teachings in Discovering the Future) Translation: A group of translators, Tehran: Ordibehesht Media Art Publications. [In Persian]
Da Costa, O., Warnke, P., Cagnin, C., & Scapolo, F. (2008). The impact of foresight on policy-making: insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 20(3): 369–387. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09537320802000146
Darabi, A. (2015). Future Studies of the Islamic Revolution (Fears and Hopes), Tehran: Amirkabir Publications Institute. [In Persian]
Enayatullah, S. (2016). Questioning the future: methods and tools of organizational and social transformation, Tehran: Educational and Research Institute of Defense Industries. [In Persian]
Fukuyama, F (2002). Ethics and culture in America, shaky foundations, Reflection of Thought Quarterly, 35: 58-53.
Godet, M. (2006). Creating Futures: Scenario planning as a Strategic Management Tool, France, and Economical publish.
Higdem, Ulla (2014). The co-creation of regional futures: Facilitating action research in regional foresight, Futures, 57: 41–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2014.01.006
Huntington, S. (1996). Clash of Civilizations Theory, Huntington and his critics, translation: Mojtaba Amiri, Tehran: Printing and Publishing Institute of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. [In Persian]
Joseph, V. (2003). A generic foresight process framework, Foresight, 3: 10-21.
Kamousi Alamdari, J., Asghari, H., Poursheykhian, A., & Hasanimehr, S. (2022). Analysis of sustainable development guidelines & challenges with future trending survey (Case study: ARAS Free region). Regional Planning, 11(44), 103-118. https://doi.org/10.30495/jzpm.2022.4068 [In Persian]
Khaleghi, A. & Yeganeh, A. (2020). Future of rural population with emphasis on the role of migration (Case study: Varzeqan County). JFCV 2020; 1 (3):1-14. [In Persian]
Khaleghi, A., & Majnouni- Toutakhane, A. (2021). The Future Study of Rural Development Planning (Case Study: Varzaqan County). Regional Planning, 11(42), 137-153. https://doi.org/10.30495/jzpm.2021.3937 [In Persian]
Khaleghi, A., & Nagizadeh, R. (2021). Analysis of Rural Community Attitudes Towards Development Programs in the Area of Spatial Behavior Geography Case study: Central part of Varzeqan county. Geography and Development, 19(64), 265-290. https://doi.org/10.22111/j10.22111.2021.6351 [In Persian]
Lashgari Tafreshi, E. (2022). Cognitive requirements of relationship between politics and geographical space in context of structuralism with emphasis on Hegel's views. Journal of Arid Regions Geographic Studies, 12(46), 1-16. [In Persian]
Madaghi, M. & Karavand, A. (2010). Foresight and future management, Tehran: Hazare Qaqnoos Publications. [In Persian]
March, A., Kornakova, M., Handmer, (2017). Urban planning and recovery governance, In: March, A., Kornakova, M. (Eds.), Urban Planning for Disaster Recovery. Elsevier Science, Cambridge, 13–30.
Maynooth, NUI (2005). Rural Ireland 2025 foresight perspectives, joint publication, University College Dublin, Teagasc.
McLuhan, M. (1998). To understand the media, translated by: Saeed Azari, Tehran: Center for Research, Studies and Program Evaluation of Radio and Television of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Nackoney, J., Williams, D. (2013). A comparison of scenarios for rural development planning and conservation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Biological Conservation, 164: 140–149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2013.04.011
Narooei mehr, S., & Najafi Kani, A. (2022). The role of rural guide plans in physical-spatial improvement of conditions of rural settlements Case study: Villages of Jolgeh Chah Hashem District in Dalgan County. Journal of Arid Regions Geographic Studies, 13(48), 100-79. https://doi.org/10.22034/jargs.2023.373952.0 [In Persian]
Omidi Shahabad, O., Badri, S. A., Rezvani, M. R., & Zali, N. (2019). Analysis of the Key Factors Affecting the Formation of Spatial Planning Patterns in Rural Areas Based on the Foresight Approach: A Case Study of Lorestan. Journal of Rural Research, 10(1), 92-113. https://doi.org/10.22059/jrur.2018.217086.993 [In Persian]
Oner A. M., Ozcan, S. (2005). A system approach to policy analysis and development planning: Construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 72(7): 886-911. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2004.11.002
Oshnooei Nooshabadi, A., Mohammad Ebrahimi, M. (2021). Determining key drivers affecting urban livability with a futuristic approach (Case study: Kashan). Geography and Planning, 25(76), 27-41. https://dx.doi.org/10.22034/gp.2021.13132 [In Persian]
Pike, A., Rodríguez-Pose, A., & Tomaney, J. (2016). Local and regional development: Routledge.
Pormohamadei, M. (2010). Reengineering the planning process with an emphasis on the use of foresight. Geography and Development, 8(20), 37-58. https://doi.org/10.22111/gdij.2010.595 [In Persian]
Prager, K., Nienaber, B., Neumann, B, Phillips, A. (2015). How should rural policy be evaluated if it aims to foster community involvement in environmental management? Journal of Rural Studies, 37: 120-131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2014.12.006
Raszkowski, A. (2014). Place marketing in the process of territorial identity creation and strengthening, Journal of European Economy, 13(2): 193-204.
Rezaei, J. (2012). Comparison of the degree of development of rural areas in the cities of Ilam province, Ilam Agricultural Research Center, 16 (1): 1-17. [In Persian]
Ricardo A. D. (2011). Planning for sustainable development: Strategic alignment in Peruvian regions and cities, Futures, 43 (8): 908–918. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.06.014
Rokneddin Eftekhari A, Mahmoodi S, Ghaffari G, Pourtaheri M. (2015). The explanation of spatial pattern of social capital with respect to sustainable rural development - case: villages of Razavi Khorasan. Space Economy & Rural Development, 4 (11):87-107. [In Persian]
Sardar, Z (2016). The future: all that matters, translated by: Mohsen Taheri-Demeneh, Tehran: Ayandehpajuh publication. [In Persian]
Schwab, J., (2010). Hazard Mitigation: Integrating Best Practice into Planning. American Planning Association, Chicago.
Shafiei-Sabet, N. & Mirvahedi, N. (2018). Policies and planning approach: challenges and opportunities of empowering local stakeholders and sustainable rural development (case study: villages in the south and southeast of Tehran), Rural Research and Planning, No. 8 (4): 127-147. [In Persian]
Slaughter, R. (2015). The principle of foresight, reconstruction and cultural revival in the 21st century, translators: Sohail Soleimanzadeh, Abdolomajid Karamatzadeh, Tehran: Publications of Defense Industries Educational and Research Institute, Center for Future Research and Science and Technology. [In Persian]
Sotoudeh, N. Z., Fathollahi, J., & Mousavi, M. (2022). Explaining the Regional Competitiveness with future study approach (The case study of Kermanshah Province). Regional Planning, 11(44), 39-56. https://doi.org/10.30495/jzpm.2022.4082 [In Persian]
Stimson, R. J., Stough, R. R., & Roberts, B. H. (2006). Regional economic development: analysis and planning strategy: Springer Science & Business Media.
Taghilu, A. (2013). Future scenarios of rural settlements in Iran, Rural Research and Planning, 3 (5): 83-97. [In Persian]
Toffler, A. & Toffler, H. (1997). Towards a new civilization, translated by Mohammad Reza Jafari, Tehran: Simorgh Publishing House. [In Persian]
Toffler, A. (2014). Future shock, translated by: Heshmatullah Kamrani, Tehran: Farhang Nashr Publications. [In Persian]
Toffler, Al. (1999). The third wave, translated by: Shahindokht Kharazmi, Tehran: Nashr Elm Publications. [In Persian]
Torre, A. and F. Wallet (2016). Regional Development in Rural Areas: Analytical Tools and Public Policies, Springer Briefs in Regional Science.
Vargas-Lama, F., & Osorio-Vera, F.-J. (2020). The Territorial Foresight for the construction of shared visions and mechanisms to minimize social conflicts: The case of Latin America, Futures, 123: 102625.
Weigand, K., Flanagan, T., Dye, K, Jones, P. (2014). Collaborative foresight: Complementing long-horizon strategic planning, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 85: 134–152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.016
Zagacki, K. S. (1992). The Rhetoric of American Decline: Paul Kennedy, Conservatives, and the Solvency Debate, Western Journal of Communication, 56, 372-393. https://doi.org/10.1080/10570319209374424
Zivanovic, V. (2017). The Role of Nodal Centers in Achieving Balanced Regional Development, Journal of the Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijic, SASA, 67(1): 69-84. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/IJGI1701069Z
Volume 14, Issue 52
Summer 2023
Pages 135-116

  • Receive Date 04 April 2023
  • Revise Date 19 May 2023
  • Accept Date 20 May 2023
  • Publish Date 23 August 2023