Future scenario planning of the Land Use and Land Cover System Case Study: Koohpayeh-Segzi Sub-basin in the Central Iran Basin

Taromi, Amanallah; Taleshi, Mostafa; Rostami, Shahbakhti; Gharani Arani, Behruz

doi:10.22034/jargs.2025.486962.1158

Future scenario planning of the Land Use and Land Cover System Case Study: Koohpayeh-Segzi Sub-basin in the Central Iran Basin

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Amanallah Taromi

Mostafa Taleshi

Shahbakhti Rostami

Behruz Gharani Arani

Department of Geography. Payame Noor University. Tehran. Iran.

10.22034/jargs.2025.486962.1158

Abstract

Aim: To explain the upcoming scenarios and present the optimal scenario of the LULC system in line with the sustainability of rural settlements of Koohpayeh-Segzi Sub-basin in the horizon of 1425 AD.
Materials & Methods: This research employs a descriptive-analytical method and is categorized as applied and exploratory research, in line with its purpose. The required data were collected through library research, a review of sources, and expert questioning. To analyze the data and collect information, the MICMAC software and Scenario Wizard were used.
Findings: The results of this research showed that 66.7% of the 54 states are in unfavorable and critical conditions, and 11% are in the favorable state. Also, in less than 22.3%, it is the continuation of the current trend, and based on this, the LULC system is moving towards an unfavorable future in the horizon of 1425.
Conclusion: Based on the research findings, taking urgent measures in this field and within this local territory is mandatory and necessary, particularly in light of the key drivers and future scenarios. The future scenarios of the LULC system in this sub-basin show the occurrence of critical conditions in the future horizon, and in other words, in this period of instability, unfavorable and essential conditions of the rural settlements of this territory will not be far from expected, and the first scenario can be considered the only favorable scenario and idea. Al stated that to achieve sustainability in rural settlements.
Innovation: One of the most important innovative and practical aspects of research is the use and combination of future research methods, as well as their application in spatial planning and land use and land cover systems. Additionally, the upcoming research has been innovative in its application of a spatial-temporal approach, method, and results.

Keywords

Scenario

Foresight

Land use

Land cover

Koohpayeh-Segzi Sub-basin

Rural settlements

Subjects

Rural geography - rural planning

Extended Abstract

1. Introduction

Wise management of space, especially land use and land cover, requires an understanding of the interactions between human activities and the natural environment, as well as recognition of its changes and developments, to monitor and preserve the environment. This is considered one of the fundamental principles of sustainable development. Rural settlements, as the foundation of the national settlement and activity system, play a crucial role in national-regional development, as sustainable territorial development depends on the sustainability of the rural system, a subsystem that constitutes the land system. Excessive and unsustainable exploitation of land resources has created irreparable consequences for human societies at various levels. Also, in the field of planning and national and regional development programs, addressing the future and planning for it is an inseparable part of this process, and neglecting it and relying on forecasting and analyzing trends creates countless problems in program implementation, and most of these problems are due to not paying attention to the effects of emerging technologies in life or neglecting key drivers and factors. This neglect in the development process causes their gradual weakening and, ultimately, a negative impact on the entire system. Recently, the analysis of the future of the LULC system has been increasingly applied to spatial planning tools. The results of these studies, considering the models presented and the potential changes that may occur in the future, can make land use planning more efficient and inform measures to prevent undesirable outcomes, especially in extreme and critical events.

2. Materials and methods

Catchment areas are accepted as a planning unit at different levels, and any human action can affect all their dimensions. By conducting studies in Catchment areas, sustainable and desirable planning and management can be achieved. This research was conducted in the Koohpayeh-Segzi sub-basin. The current research is descriptive-analytical in terms of method and applied and exploratory in terms of purpose. This research, employing foresight studies techniques and a temporal-spatial approach, aims to identify the desired scenario for achieving and promoting the sustainability of rural settlements.

3. Results and Discussion

In this study, 56 factors affecting the development of the LULC system were collected, taking into account the time-spatial approach of the research, and after identifying the key drivers for each of the factors, the future states were set in three favorable, intermediate, and unfavorable conditions, which resulted in a total of 18 possible assumptions and uncertainties. The results of matrix processing in the Scenario Wizard software indicate that three strong scenarios, 65 weak scenarios, and nine scenarios with high compatibility are ahead of the future of the LULC system, and among the 54 future states, 66.7 percent are ahead in unfavorable and critical conditions, and 11 percent are ahead of the favorable state. Additionally, less than 22.3 percent are continuing the current trend and are in an intermediate state. Consequently, the LULC system is moving towards an unfavorable future; therefore, taking urgent measures in this field and spatial domain, about the key drivers, is mandatory and necessary. Thus, scenario number one is the desirable and ideal scenario for achieving sustainability in rural settlements.

4. Conclusion

The sustainability of rural settlements is a prerequisite for achieving regional and national sustainable development. One of the main effective elements in the sustainability of settlements is the land use and land cover system. The obtained scenarios indicate that the future status of the LULC system in the Koohpayeh-Segzi study sub-basin is moving towards unfavorable and critical conditions by 2046, and taking immediate measures according to key drivers and upcoming scenarios is mandatory. In this study, the desirable and ideal scenario is the first scenario presented. In the first step, this scenario requires development-oriented and program-oriented management with a systematic approach; in the second step, it requires a review of the program and policies, taking into account environmental crises and spatial-temporal approaches, and explaining patterns of optimal and sustainable exploitation of environmental resources based on needs assessment and feasibility assessment; in the third step, it requires structural reform and a decisive deal with administrative corruption, eliminating the resource rent system and gangsterism among organizations and managers, and allocating smart and trackable systems; in the fourth step, it is necessary to create an integrated and coordinated land resource management system with a systemic approach in urban and rural areas; in the fifth step, it is necessary to allocate an optimal land system and pay attention to the role of villages in programs and not implement abstract and sector-oriented programs; and in the sixth step, it is necessary to formulate and implement efficient and deterrent laws for all actors and stakeholders with regard to the spatial-temporal approach.

5. Acknowledgement & Funding

· The manuscript did not receive a grant from any organization.

6. Conflict of Interest

· The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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