Extended Abstract

1. Introduction

According to statistics announced by international institutions, there is a challenging gap in the world between the ability to supply water and the intensity of water demand, which, if not controlled by a set of management solutions, will become a place of tension and conflict on local, regional, national, and global scales. Other crisis-causing factors include the level of income of individuals, population growth, the level of investment in water infrastructure, water management, technological changes in the agricultural and industrial sectors, and decision-making policies, which lead to other scenarios for the future of water. In the meantime, Iran is among the arid and semi-arid countries of the world and is considered one of the most water-scarce countries in the world due to low precipitation and inappropriate temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation. Therefore, despite the consequences and effects of the water crisis in the environmental sphere and even the social space, such as local and regional disputes and conflicts in some provinces of the country, the necessary attention, sensitivity, and concern among the general public and even experts and policymakers have not yet emerged as they should. Incorrect water management on a government scale for a long time, the lack of strategic planning regarding water safety issues in the country, and the weakness of policies have doubled the need to revise the goals and policies ahead in order to manage the water crisis.

2. Materials and Methods

In this research, based on the nature of the research, quantitative and qualitative methods, data analysis, and extraction of indicators have been used. The main goal of this research is to identify and analyze the key variables that are important in the water crisis issue in Ardabil city. In two stages, the Delphi questionnaire was distributed among the experts. In the first step, the experts identified the indicators in general, and after monitoring and integrating the indicators, in the second step, the experts identified and selected the important and influential factors in the water issue of Ardabil city using the Delphi questionnaire. After selecting the indicators, a matrix of variables was formed for scoring and entering the scores into the software. In the next stage, these scores were entered into the software by forming a matrix in the MICMAC software, and after calculations were performed by the software, the key factors and main variables affecting the water issue of Ardabil city were identified.

3. Results and Discussion

In the first step, the experts identified the general indicators, and after monitoring and integrating the indicators, in the second step, the experts identified and selected important and influential factors in the water sector of Ardabil using a Delphi questionnaire. Finally, by analyzing the second round of questionnaires, 35 variables in 7 different areas, including economic, managerial, socio-cultural, demographic, environmental, agricultural, geographical, and technical, were selected as the primary variables in the water sector of Ardabil. By examining the results obtained from the MICMAC software, 12 variables were selected as the main factors in the water sector of Ardabil, which include: increasing water prices and eliminating subsidies, migration to the city, investment in water infrastructure, improving the water distribution system and preventing water leakage, water sector management measures, expanding agricultural land, population growth, the impact of rainfall changes, using low-water-demanding plant species, improving water use efficiency, deterioration of the urban water network, and the culture of water consumption patterns among urban households. These factors were selected based on the direct and indirect impact they had on these variables and obtained the highest score. By further examining the final variables, it was determined that, according to the divided indicators, all the indicators used in the research had an impact on the water sector of Ardabil city. So that among the 7 main indicators, the technical indicator with 3 variables had the most impact, and the economic, demographic, and environmental-agricultural indicators had 2 variables each, and the managerial, geographical, and socio-cultural indicators had 1 variable each. This shows that the water is a multidimensional issue, and all indicators have an impact on improving the situation.

4. Conclusions

In this study, based on the output of the MICMAC software, it was determined that the factors that have been identified as key and important drivers in preventing or reducing the effects of the water crisis in Ardabil can play an effective role in solving this crisis, such that raising the price of water and eliminating water subsidies are considered important factors in solving the water crisis. Therefore, if the increase in the price of drinking water for urban consumers who do not comply with the consumption pattern is so high that consumption outside the defined standard places a heavy financial burden on consumers, there will definitely be savings in its consumption. The second factor is migration to Ardabil. If this factor is placed next to the population growth factor, it will be seen that the increase in the population will definitely have the consequences of a shortage of resources. Also, planning in the agricultural sector should be carried out in such a way that water is used optimally in this sector and waste and inappropriate use of water are prevented by using modern irrigation systems. Also, the change in cultivation pattern should occur in accordance with each climate, and the water resources consumed in the products should be allocated in accordance with that climate. Considering that one of the final variables in the water crisis in Ardabil city was management measures in the field of water, as a result, paying attention to culture building, optimal planning in the field of water, determining the type of cultivation, cultivation pattern, as well as attracting investors in the urban water infrastructure and agricultural irrigation sectors, and attracting budget from the government in the water infrastructure sector, are effective measures in this field.

5. Acknowledgment & Funding

The manuscript did not receive a grant from any organization.

6. Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.