Journal of Arid Regions Geographic Studies

Journal of Arid Regions Geographic Studies

Developing and Assessing Ecotourism Strategies in the Lut Desert through Scenario Planning

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Mehdi Ramezanzade Lasboy 1
Leila Jalalabadi 2
1 Tourism Management Department, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
2 Department of Tourism Management, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar and Department of Tourism, Faculty of Tourism, Bam Higher Education Complex, Bam, Iran
10.22034/jargs.2025.528780.1208
Abstract
Aim: Desert tourism, as a subset of ecotourism, offers unique opportunities for economic, socio-cultural, and environmental development, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. The Lut Desert, one of the hottest and driest areas in the world, holds significant potential for ecotourism development in Iran. This study aims to present tangible, plausible future scenarios for desert tourism in the Lut Desert using scenario-writing techniques.
Material & Method: This research combines documentary and surveying methods for practical purposes, and exploratory and analytical methods for methods, and, in terms of nature, the scenario-based planning method. The data collection method in this qualitative study was interviews with 20 professors of Tourism and ecotourism, the research population, conducted using the Delphi technique. Also, Mic-Mac software and Scenario Wizard were used to analyze the data.
Finding: 15 possible situations were defined for 5 key factors influencing the development of tourism in the Lūt Desert. Three scenarios, optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic, were defined for each factor. Uncertainties affecting the future of Lut Desert ecotourism were extracted, and three plausible scenarios were developed and analyzed: dawn of the ferrician, the Sisphus dance in the wheel of the sphere, and the niche gap in the shield.
Conclusion: To achieve the desired scenario of development of desert tourism, it is necessary for all stakeholders, including the government and various government bodies, the local community, and investors, to be more flexible in effective and constructive cooperation rather than accepting future uncertainties and to make the most of the challenges and opportunities that may occur in the future.
Innovation: The most important innovative aspects of the research include the use of scenario planning as a long-term predictive method for the development of Lūt desert ecotourism.
Keywords
Ecotourism
Desert tourism
Scenario planning
Lut desert
Subjects

Extended Abstract

1. Introduction

The development and expansion of ecotourism in desert areas with potential and capacities is very necessary for the comprehensive development of tourism in the country. Of the country's total area, 43 million hectares are among the desert ecosystems, which, despite their apparent violence, are rich in unique natural and human attractions.

Given the capabilities and limitations of Lut Desert ecotourism, this research presents scenarios for how stakeholders of desert ecotourism and tourism actively shape the future rather than react to it by formulating scenario planning as a tool for Sustainable Development and adaptive management.

The purpose of scenarios for predicting the future of Louth desert ecotourism in 1415 is to examine the behavioral dimensions and various stresses that may occur between the organizations involved, the local community, tourists, and the resources needed by each of them, and the impact of these stresses on the future of Louth desert ecotourism. In this study, each scenario involves processes that are well aligned with theoretical criteria to guide all stakeholders and activists of the Lut Desert tourism to improve the potential and measures through which they can more flexible themselves to accept future uncertainties and make the most of the challenges and opportunities that may occur in the future.

2. Materials and methods

To conduct the research, the Delphi technique, interaction/ structural effects analysis, and scenario writing were used. The Delphi technique was used to survey experts in several stages, and the method of counter-effect balance analysis for scenarios was used to estimate the scenarios of the driving and key factors. The interaction balance Analysis tool is the scenario software. Scenario writing is a very effective and useful way to plan for the medium and long term in situations of uncertainty. This method helps the system to have a proper orientation towards the course of future events, in addition to preparing numerous plans for unexpected events. Scenario software is designed to perform complex scenario-writing calculations. After selecting the key factors, each of the factors is classified into different situations, and these situations are made available to experts and experts in a matrix for all key factors. In this questionnaire, situations can also show a negative impact, and the number of questions varies from 3 to 3. The central question of the questionnaire is "If the A1 status of the key factor A occurs in the future of Lut Desert ecotourism, what impact will it have on the occurrence or absence of the B2 status of the key factor B, the answer to which is mentioned in a spectrum of numbers 3 to 3, and finally, analyzed in the software".

3. Results and Discussion

In view of the issues raised in the scenarios for the development of tourism in the Lut Desert, and in view of the uncertainties raised, three scenarios that can be illustrated were compiled as follows:

The scenario of the "Sepideh Farkiani" represents the ideal path for the development of ecotourism in the Lut Desert on the horizon 1415. This scenario, emphasizing integrated coordination and management, addresses sustainable flourishing and maintaining a balance between development and conservation of Natural Resources.

The scenario of " raqs seezfos dar charkh samsareh " emphasizes the gradual and poor development of ecotourism in the Lut Desert until 1415.

The " shekaf nicheh dar sephr " scenario clearly warns that if ecotourism monitoring and management are not seriously pursued in the Lut Desert, the Lut Desert will face serious crises by 1415.

 

4. Conclusion

These three scenarios reflect the different paths that the Louth desert can take to develop its future ecotourism by 1415. The "dawn of the Furkian" scenario, as the most ideal scenario, will bring the best result for the development of the ecotourism of the Louth desert, given its full coordination and sustainable development. The scenario of "Sisphus dancing on the wheel of the diamond" indicates a gradual and defective process in which development does not proceed with care and attention to the balance between growth and conservation of Natural Resources. The "niche gap in the shield" scenario, as a warning, represents a crisis path in which neglect of management and follow-up will lead to environmental, social, and economic crises. For the Lut Desert, it is essential to follow the path of the "dawn of the ferakiani" scenario, where sustainable development and conservation of natural, cultural, and social resources are realized alongside economic growth, empowerment of local communities, and attracting international tourists.

These scenarios have practical applications for managers, policy makers, and other stakeholders as they provide a framework for developing and evaluating robust strategies and policies and help planners and managers recognize, consider, and think about the uncertainties they are likely to face.

5. Acknowledgement & Funding

This research is supported by the research grant of the University of Mazandaran (number 33/26883). We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.

6. Conflict of Interest

The authors declared no conflict of interest.

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  • Receive Date 07 June 2025
  • Revise Date 24 July 2025
  • Accept Date 24 July 2025
  • Publish Date 01 May 2026