Journal of Arid Regions Geographic Studies

Journal of Arid Regions Geographic Studies

Exploring Future Scenarios for Water Containment in Turkey and Their Impact on Hydropolitical Relations with Iraq

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Zakeyeh Aftabi
Morad Kaviani rad
Davood Miroei melan
Department of Political Geography, Faculty of Geoghraphy, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/jargs.2025.504956.1178
Abstract
Aim: Water is the backbone of socio-economic development in human society. When a country aims to maximize its productivity by controlling upstream water resources, it often withdraws more water, which can lead to strained relations between countries that share watersheds. The aim of this study is to elucidate potential scenarios concerning the impact of water management in Turkey on the hydropolitical relations between Turkey and Iraq.
Materials & Methods: The present study is descriptive-analytical in terms of epistemology and applied in terms of purpose. The Mic Mac and Scenario Wizard software were used to conduct this research.
Findings: The research findings indicate that five key variables significantly influence the impact of water control on hydropolitical relations between Turkey and Iraq. These variables include the number of dams and water reservoirs in Turkey, inadequate governance and management in the distribution and allocation of water resources, population growth, increase in per capita water consumption due to changing habits in the utilization of water resources, Turkey's strategic use of water, and binding international laws. By formulating and analyzing the probable states governing the key variables, the future status of hydro-political relations between Iraq and Turkey emerged on the brink of a crisis.
Conclusion: The scenario "Water as Power" was introduced as the most probable scenario ahead, reflecting Turkey's control over water in the hydro-political relations between Turkey and Iraq.
Innovation: The explanation of the most probable scenario, aimed at identifying the key factors influencing the hydro-political relations between Turkey and Iraq, stems from the insights of academic and executive experts regarding Turkey's control over water resources.
Keywords
Hydropolitical relations
Iraq and Turkey
Water containment
Critical situation
Subjects

Extended Abstract

1. Introduction

Water is no longer a natural resource but has increasingly become a strategic resource with geopolitical functions. The world map shows the incompatibility of political borders with watersheds, which has caused water to gain a central position in regional and global politics. Meanwhile, shared water resources are more sensitive. Controlling transboundary water flows is effective for controlling power flows. Given the dynamic and complex interactions between water and politics around the world, especially in the Middle East, a region of tension in terms of water resource shortage, it is important. The hydrographic capacity of Turkey is decreasing, which could affect national security, exacerbate environmental issues, and jeopardize the country's food security. This has forced Turkey to control the water of its borders and shared rivers. However, the reflection of these crises can cause changes in objective and subjective forms, such as migration, the spread of disease, the destruction of agricultural lands, conflicts between rural spaces, urban water rationing, conflicts and disputes between tribes, and numerous internal issues in the downstream country. Studies and findings show that the Turkish government has put water mobilization on its agenda to overcome the internal water crisis and respond to internal demands and expectations, which has had adverse consequences on the security of water resources in Iraq. This study seeks to answer the following question: What are the future scenarios of Turkey-Iraq relations in shared water resources with the continuation of Turkey's approach to controlling transboundary waters? identifies the factors affecting the hydropolitical relations between Turkey and Iraq as a result of Turkey's control of water and explains the future scenarios of the hydropolitical relations between the two countries of Turkey and Iraq in shared water resources.

2. Materials and Methods

The present study was applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature. The data required for the study were collected using library and field methods and analyzed using future research techniques. In this study, first, by referring to library resources, important variables on the hydropolitical relations between Turkey and Iraq were identified, and their accuracy was checked through interviews with experts. In the next stage, a researcher-made questionnaire was prepared in the form of an impact analysis matrix, and the experts identified the degree of correlation of the variables with the relevant field using the Micmac software. Five variables were identified as key variables in this study. Based on the key variables and their different states, a cross-sectional questionnaire was designed and provided to the research and statistical community. The completed questionnaires were entered into Scenario Wizard software. The questionnaire was weighted as a pairwise comparison, and the degree of correlation between the variables was measured with numbers between -3 and 3. Finally, a portfolio of scenarios for the development of hydropolitical relations between Turkey and Iraq was identified, and the most likely scenario was analyzed.

3. Results and Discussion

The number of dams in Turkey, lack of proper governance and lack of proper management in the distribution and rationing of water, population growth, and increasing per capita water due to changing habits in water use, Turkey's instrumental use of water, and binding international laws were identified as key variables affecting the hydropolitical relations between Turkey and Iraq due to water control in Turkey. In line with the number of key variables, the situation on the verge of a crisis prevails over other possible situations.

4. Conclusion

Security, development, and welfare of societies are directly related to access to water resources, and reduced access leads to tensions and conflicts over the management of shared water resources. Turkey and Iraq are among the most important countries located in the Tigris and Euphrates River Basins. The hydropolitical relationship between the two countries is based on the structure of Turkey being upstream and Iraq downstream. Turkey, with its geographical, economic, and military advantages, has taken control of the water resources of the Tigris and Euphrates through the development of the Southeastern Anatolia Project. Despite Turkey's development goals, including hydroelectric power generation and increased agricultural production, this project has decreased the quantity and quality of water entering Iraq. Iraq, which receives more than 95 percent of its water resources from the Tigris and Euphrates, is in a weak position due to its downstream location and heavy reliance on these two rivers, and its hydropolitical relations with Turkey are affected by this asymmetry in water resources. Given the arid and semi-arid climatic conditions of the region, the pressure on water resources, and the increasing population needs, the importance and complexity of this relationship will increase in the future. Based on the opinions of experts, the present study identified five variables: the number of dams and water dams in Turkey, the lack of proper governance and proper management in the distribution and allocation of water, population growth and the increase in per capita water due to changing habits in the use of water resources, Turkey's instrumental use of water, and binding international laws as key variables affecting Turkey–Iraq hydropolitical relations. In the following, in line with the states governing the key variables, seven possible scenarios for the hydropolitical relations of the two countries of Turkey and Iraq are presented, of which the "water as power" scenario has been selected as the most likely and significant scenario. This scenario shows the fragile state of relations between the two countries and warns that the hydropolitical relations between Iraq and Turkey are on the verge of a serious crisis. With a view to the climate trends and hydropolitical policies of Turkey to gain more control over the water resources of the Tigris and Euphrates basins, influence and exercise power in the countries of the Middle East, especially Iraq; the research scenario is not far-fetched. Also, in the end, strengthening bargaining diplomacy and optimal management of water resources for Iraq in hydropolitical relations with Turkey is suggested.

5. Aknowledgmant & Funding

·        We would like to express our sincere gratitude to the research experts who assisted us throughout the process of completing this article. Furthermore, we wish to honor the memory of our co-author, Mr. Davood Miroei Milan, who made a significant contribution to the development of this work. May his soul rest in peace.

·        The manuscript did not receive a grant from any organization

6. Conflict of Interest

·        The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

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  • Receive Date 06 February 2025
  • Revise Date 18 October 2025
  • Accept Date 18 October 2025
  • Publish Date 01 May 2026