Aim: Water is the backbone of socio-economic development in human society. When a country aims to maximize its productivity by controlling upstream water resources, it often withdraws more water, which can lead to strained relations between countries that share watersheds. The aim of this study is to elucidate potential scenarios concerning the impact of water management in Turkey on the hydropolitical relations between Turkey and Iraq.
Material and Method: The present study is descriptive-analytical in terms of epistemology and applied in terms of purpose. The Mic Mac and Scenario Wizard software were used to conduct this research.
Findings: The research findings indicate that five key variables significantly influence the impact of water control on hydropolitical relations between Turkey and Iraq. These variables include the number of dams and water reservoirs in Turkey, inadequate governance and management in the distribution and allocation of water resources, population growth, increase in per capita water consumption due to changing habits in the utilization of water resources, Turkey's strategic use of water, and binding international laws. By formulating and analyzing the probable states governing the key variables, the future status of hydro-political relations between Iraq and Turkey emerged on the brink of a crisis.
Conclusion: The scenario "Water as Power" was introduced as the most probable scenario ahead, reflecting Turkey's control over water in the hydro-political relations between Turkey and Iraq.
Innovation: The explanation of the most probable scenario, aimed at identifying the key factors influencing the hydro-political relations between Turkey and Iraq, stems from the insights of academic and executive experts regarding Turkey's control over water resources.