شناسایی عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر توسعه‌ی گردشگری با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری (مطالعه‌ی موردی: استان یزد)

Introduction
The present study, with a futuristic approach, identifies the most important factors affecting the future status of sustainable tourism in Yazd province and examines the extent and nature of these factors.
Materials and Methods
This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of method a combination of documentary and survey methods and in nature, and it is based on new methods of future study science, analytical and exploratory that is done by applying a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. The statistical population of the study consists of 18 tourism specialists in Yazd province.   At first 29 components in managerial - organizational, economic, socio - cultural, environmental and physical - spatial dimensions were formed from the above documents and theoretical sources, selection and matrix of component interactions and  analysis has been done through the Mac software..
Discussion and Results
According to the model results, tourism in Yazd province is an unstable system with "environmental tolerance capacity (environmental pollutants / sewage systems and waste disposal, environmental degradation due to construction in tourism target villages)" and "social capacity of local community in attracting tourists (motivationally)" , Attitude, awareness) act as determinants. None of the components of tourism development in Yazd province can be defined as a target factor. This issue illustrates the multilateralism of Yazd province tourism development from the point of view of tourism managers and elites of Yazd province. The "security" and "level of development and economic status of the local community" were very close to the stake. "Drought and quantitative and quantitative reduction of water resources", "Improvement of inter-organizational relationships, linking decision centers in an organization or related organizations in the inter-organizational system", "Inflation control", "Participation" and "Strengthening NGOs and influencing organizations" had the most impact on public policy. Nine variables were also included as influencers providing tourism entrepreneurship development, expanding international marketing and using innovative approaches, branding, target image improvement, competing other economic sectors to attract tourism, creative features of native culture, ceremonies, festivals, exhibitions and special events, balanced and optimal distribution of facilities and facilities in the area's tourism space (zoning of services and designating special routes), creating spatial variability in the tourism target areas. Flexibility factors in social communication of the community, increasing interaction of people with tourist and institutionalizing appropriate behavior with tourists, landscape beauty and architectural style (dynamic public space design, revival of old texture, place identity transfer), climate change, improving organizational capacity of executive agencies ( Empowering and enhancing of human capital capacity, job satisfaction, increased creativity and innovation, job security were categorized as independent factors. Destination Tourism Participatory Planning factors, Regional Tourism Master Plan, Tourism Budget Targeting Tourism Development Credits based on Prioritized Potentials, Strengthening Transport Infrastructure, Services, Information and Intelligence (Ensuring Tourist Online Transactions, Using Electronic Placement System and Services such as Reserve Hotels, easy access to all services and e-tourism tools were categorized as dual factors. Next, the direct and indirect effects graph of factors affecting tourism development were studied based on the interpretation of the results of the direct effects graph, the variables of the level of local community economy development, drought and the quantitative and qualitative reduction of water resources, inflation, regional tourism product rates and competitive prices. They have had a great impact and increased their role in the system. Finally, the direct and indirect effects of variables were compared. The comparison showed that of the ten variables with high impact, the rank of six variables was the same in both direct and indirect impact assessment methods and 4 variables had little displacement and the direct and indirect impact ratings showed factors such as: "Capacity of Local Community Economic Participation in Tourism Development Plans", "Strengthening Transport Infrastructure, Services, Information and Intelligence" and "Competition of Other Economic Sectors in Attracting Capital with Tourism Sector" had the same rank in direct and indirect impact, and other factors had slightly displacement.
Conclusions
A total of 10 factors were selected as key factors for tourism development in Yazd province. Level of development and economic status of the local community, targeting allocation of tourism development credits, inflation, transportation infrastructure, services, information and intelligence, drought and quantitative and quantitative reduction of water resources, security, master plan, NGOs and reform and development of inter-agency relations. Key factors influencing tourism development in Yazd province.