Aim: Despite its significant socio-economic and environmental potential, ecotourism development in natural and rural areas remains a complex process driven by various uncertainties. This study employs foresight analysis to explore ecotourism development in the Emamzadeh Badroud district, leveraging its strategic location, diverse attractions, and high pilgrimage volume to identify key drivers and uncertainties.
Material & Method: Using an exploratory mixed-methods design, this research integrated foresight techniques (Delphi, MicMac structural analysis, and scenario planning) with quantitative validation from 385 questionnaires targeting tourists and tourism professionals.
Findings: Results indicated that the most critical threats and weaknesses are the intensifying water crisis (groundwater depletion) and the lack of standard accommodation infrastructure, respectively. Conversely, the area’s primary strengths and opportunities lie in its diverse attractions within a 50-km radius and the increasing public interest in ecotourism among Iranians.
Conclusion: The study identified “water crisis intensification and groundwater depletion” as the key threat, and “lack of standard accommodation” as the main weakness. The primary strength and opportunity were “diverse attractions within 50km” and “growing public interest in ecotourism,” respectively. Four future scenarios were formulated, with the “status quo” being the most likely. These include: (1) Ideal Scenario: supportive policies and controlled climate; (2) Resilience Scenario: supportive policies with severe climate crisis; (3) Collapse Scenario: volatile policies and severe climate crisis; and (4) Status Quo Scenario: volatile policies with a manageable climate crisis.
Innovation: The findings of this study can serve as a strategic roadmap for tourism managers and regional policymakers to formulate sustainable development programs, manage climate-related crises (specifically water scarcity), and enhance accommodation infrastructure, aiming to mitigate the risks associated with the ‘status quo’ scenario.