اثرات خشک‌سالی بر فعالیت‌ها و معیشت خانوارهای روستایی (موردمطالعه: شهرستان میرجاوه)

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

2 دانشگاه خوارزمی

چکیده

تغییرات آب‌وهوایی و ازجمله وقوع خشک‌سالی اثرت زیادی بر فعالیت‌ها و معیشت خانوارهای روستایی به‌ویژه در روستاهای مناطق مرزی که با کمبود گزینه‌های معیشتی روبه‌رو هستند، وارد می‌سازد. با توجه به اهمیت این موضوع، در پژوهش حاضر به بررسی اثرات خشک‌سالی بر فعالیت‌ها و معیشت خانوارهای روستایی شهرستان میرجاوه پرداخته شد. تحقیق حاضر از نظر هدف، کاربردی و روش انجام آن توصیفی-تحلیلی است. ابزار گردآوری داده‌ها و اطلاعات پرسش‌نامه، مصاحبه‌ی آزاد و مشاهده‌ی محقق از منطقه‌ی موردمطالعه بوده است. جامعه‌ی آماری، خانوارهای روستایی شهرستان میرجاوه در استان سیستان و بلوچستان است (29752 N=). با استفاده از فرمول کوکران و به روش نمونه‌گیری سهمیه‌ای، 348 خانوار به‌عنوان نمونه انتخاب گردید. برای تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها از آمار توصیفی و مدل رگرسیون لجستیک باینری (روش LM-نیوتن-مارکارد-رافسون) استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که از میان 18 متغیر در نظر گرفته‌شده، وقوع خشک‌سالی به ترتیب بیش‌ترین اثر را بر پنج متغیر کاهش تولیدات کشاورزی، کاهش درآمد و پس‌انداز، افزایش مهاجرت روستایی، کاهش منابع آب و کاهش تنوع گیاهی و جانوری منطقه داشته است. همچنین از نظر اثرات کلی خشک‌سالی بر ابعاد معیشتی خانوارهای روستایی، این پدیده بیش‌ترین اثر را بر فعالیت‌های اقتصادی، محیطی- فیزیکی و اجتماعی داشته است. از نتایج این پژوهش برای کاهش اثرات خشک‌سالی بر فعالیت‌ها و معیشت روستایی، کاهش مهاجرت روستایی و انجام روش‌های سازگاری با اثرات مهم آن می‌توان استفاده نمود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The effects of drought on activities and livelihoods of rural households (Case Study: Mirjaveh township)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Reza Pudineh 1
  • meysam toulabi nejad 2
  • mehrshad toulabi nejad 1
چکیده [English]

Climate change, including the occurrence of drought, has a major impact on the activities and livelihoods of rural households, especially in the villages of the border regions that face a lack of livelihood options. Given the importance of this position in the present study is to investigate the effects of drought on livelihoods of rural households and experiences can be addressed Mirjaveh Township. The purpose of this research is applied and its method is descriptive-analytical. The data collection tool was a questionnaire and a free interview. The statistical population of the rural households is Mirjaveh township in Sistan and Baluchestan province (N = 29752). Using the Cochran formula, 348 households were selected as sampling by quota sampling. For analyzing data, descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression model (LM-Newton-Marcard-Raphson method) were used. The results showed that among 18 variables, the drought had the most effect on the five variables of agricultural production decrease (0.886), reduction of income and savings (0.756), increase of rural migration (0.699) Reduction of water resources (0.643) and decrease of vegetation and family diversity in the region (0.561). In addition, in terms of activities and livelihood of rural households, drought had the most effects on economic dimensions (0.417), physical environment (0.326) and social dimension (0.318). The results of this research can be used to reduce drought effects on rural activities and livelihoods and to adapt to its important effects.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Natural hazards
  • Drought
  • Rural livelihood
  • Logistic Model
  • Mirjaveh Township

مراجع

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