واکاوی روند تغییرات فرین‌های دما تحت تأثیر سناریوهای آینده به منظور ارزیابی نوسانات اقلیمی (مطالعه‌ی موردی: ایستگاه‌های همدیدی سنندج و سقز)

علوی‌نیا, سید حسن; زارعی, مهدی

واکاوی روند تغییرات فرین‌های دما تحت تأثیر سناریوهای آینده به منظور ارزیابی نوسانات اقلیمی (مطالعه‌ی موردی: ایستگاه‌های همدیدی سنندج و سقز)

نویسندگان

سید حسن علوی‌نیا ¹

مهدی زارعی ²

¹ دانشگاه کاشان

² دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری

چکیده

تغییر اقلیم پدیده‌ای است که طی سال‌های اخیر اکوسیستم‌های طبیعی و نیز تمام جوانب زندگی انسان را تحت تأثیر خود قرار داده است. هدف از پژوهش حاضر، شناسایی بروز یا عدم وقوع تغییر اقلیم طی سال‌های 2015-1961 با استفاده از شاخص‌های حدی TXx و TNn است. همچنین برای پیش‌بینی سناریوهای اقلیمی آینده از 3 سناریوی مدل CanESM2 استفاده و داده‌های موردنظر با مدل SDSM کوچک‌مقیاس شدند. بدین منظور از داده‌های دمای حداکثر و حداقل روزانه ایستگاه‌های سینوپتیک سنندج و سقز استفاده شد. برای تشخیص روند شاخص‌ها از آزمون من-کندال و از روش تخمین‌گر شیب سن برای بزرگی روند استفاده شد. در ادامه، پیش‌بینی اقلیمی برای دوره‌ی 2050-2020 صورت گرفت و دو شاخص حدی به دست آمد. نتایج نشان داد که طی دوره‌ی پایه در سنندج هر دو شاخص روند معنی‌دار دارند، اما در مورد سقز معنی‌داری تنها برای TNn صادق است. این امر در مورد سناریوهای تولیدشده نیز تنها در RCP2.6 در هر دو شاخص برای سنندج و در RCP8.5 تنها در شاخص TXx برای سقز رخ داد. بر اساس نتایج، روند افزایشی بزرگ‌ترین دمای بیشینه و کوچک‌ترین دمای کمینه‌ی منطقه‌ی موردمطالعه همانند دوره‌ی پایه نیز طی 30 سال آینده تحت هر سه سناریو افزایش خواهد یافت که این تغییرات افزایشی به میزان حدود یک درصد نسبت به میانگین دوره‌ی پایه خواهد بود. با توجه به یافته‌های حاصل می‌توان نتیجه گرفت که یکی از عوامل افزایش دما طی دوره‌ی مشاهداتی می‌تواند پدیده‌ی تغییر اقلیم تلقی گردد و این پدیده در سناریوی RCP2.6 ایستگاه سنندج نیز عامل افزایش دما بوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

تغییر اقلیم

روند

مدل گردش عمومی جو (GCM)

سناریوهای اقلیمی

CanESM2

SDSM

عنوان مقاله English

Analysis of Extreme Temperature Change Trend under Future Scenarios in order to Assess Climate Fluctuations (Case Study: Sanandaj and Saghez Synoptic Stations)

نویسنده English

Seyed Hassan Alavinia ¹

چکیده English

Climate change is a phenomenon that has affected natural ecosystems and all aspects of human life in recent years. Therefore, identifying and predicting climate change can greatly help manage it and reduce its harmful effects. The purpose of the present study is to identify whether or not occurrence of climate change by extreme indices including TXx and TNn during 1961-2015. In addition, CanESM2 model use under three scenarios to predict future climatic scenarios and the data were processed using SDSM model to detect the temperature of the studied stations. To this aim, the maximum and minimum daily temperature data of Sanandej and Saqez synoptic stations were used. Mann-Kendall test use to detect the trend of temperature extreme indices and Sen’s estimator applied to magnitude of trend. Subsequently, climate forecasts were carried out under three scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of CanESM2 model and two extreme indices were obtained in 2020-2050. The results showed that both of extreme indices had a significant trend and the TNn have a significant trend in Saghez during the baseline period. In the case of the generated scenarios, only RCP2.6 was meaningful in two Indices for Sanandej and in TXx have a significant trend for Saghez. The results showed that in the case study, the highest maximum and the lowest minimum temperature will increase under three scenarios over the next 30 years by one percent compared to the average of baseline period. It should be noted that this increase will occur over a period of 30-year and will certainly increase in the longer term.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

climate change

Trend

GCM

Climatic scenarios

CanESM2

SDSM

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