Aim: Climate change significantly influences the tourism industry, a crucial sector for economic stability in various regions. The impacts of global warming are particularly pronounced in mountainous areas, where ski resorts are especially susceptible due to their reliance on snow indices. This study aims to examine the impact of climate change on snow depth at the Kouhrang ski resort, a key winter tourism destination in the Zayandeh Rood basin.
Material & Metod: Annual data on temperature, precipitation, frost days, and snow depth from 1987 to 2023 were analyzed using Mann-Kendall, Pittet, correlation, and multivariate regression tests.
Finding: The findings indicate a 61 percent reduction in snow depth (Z=-2.25) since 2007. Additionally, the number of frost days has decreased by approximately 8 days (Z=-3.4), while the average temperature has risen by 1.2°C (Z=4.14). Multivariate tests confirmed the influence of rising temperatures and decreasing frost days on snow depth. Projections based on SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios suggest a continued upward trend in temperature, with coefficients of determination for annual average, minimum, and maximum temperatures exceeding 90, 86, and 73 percent, respectively. The most substantial increase is anticipated in minimum temperatures, with an expected rise of 0.7 to 1.6°C between 2020 and 2040.
Conclusion: The current trend of increasing temperatures in the region is likely to persist. Given the ongoing rise in temperatures and decline in frost days, this challenge poses a threat to the environmental and economic aspects of winter tourism in the region.
Innovation: To date, no research has been undertaken to investigate the temporal variations in the snow depth index at the Kouhrang ski resort and the influence of climate change on this parameter. Such data are essential for enhancing the management and strategic planning of the resort.