نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Aim: Climate change significantly influences the tourism industry, a crucial sector for economic stability in various regions. The impacts of global warming are particularly pronounced in mountainous areas, where ski resorts are especially susceptible due to their reliance on snow indices. This study aims to examine the impact of climate change on snow depth at the Kouhrang ski resort, a key winter tourism destination in the Zayandeh Rood basin.
Materials & Methods: Annual data on temperature, precipitation, frost days, and snow depth from 1987 to 2023 were analyzed using Mann-Kendall, Pittet, T, correlation, and multivariate regression tests.
Finding: The findings indicate a 61 percent reduction in snow depth (Z=-2.25) since 2007. Additionally, the number of frost days has decreased by approximately 8 days (Z=-3.4), while the average temperature has risen by 1.2°C (Z=4.14). Multivariate tests confirmed the influence of rising temperatures and decreasing frost days on snow depth. Projections based on SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios suggest a continued upward trend in temperature, with coefficients of determination for annual average, minimum, and maximum temperatures exceeding 90, 86, and 73 percent, respectively. Based on the t-test, except for the estimated maximum temperature data in the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the results of other climatic elements are not significant.
Conclusion: The current trend of increasing temperatures in the region is likely to persist. Given the ongoing rise in temperatures and decline in frost days, this challenge poses a threat to the environmental and economic aspects of winter tourism in the region.
Innovation: To date, no research has been undertaken to investigate the temporal variations in the snow depth index at the Kouhrang ski resort and the influence of climate change on this parameter. Such data are essential for enhancing the management and strategic planning of the resort.
کلیدواژهها English
Extended Abstract
1. Introduction
Climate change represents a significant challenge of the 21st century, impacting both natural and human systems (IPCC, 2014). Economic sectors heavily reliant on natural resources face an increasingly uncertain future. Consequently, decision-makers bear the responsibility to evaluate the risks associated with climate change and implement measures to mitigate potential impacts, thereby fostering sustainable development (Steiger et al., 2020). Global temperatures have risen by 0.87°C relative to the 1850–1900 average, primarily due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. If current trends persist, global warming is projected to reach a threshold of +1.5°C between 2030 and 2052, surpassing the Paris Agreement's limit of +1.5°C (IPCC, 2018; Scott et al., 2021). Climate change in mountainous regions, characterized by delayed snowfall, elevated temperatures, and shorter winters, is anticipated to exert severe economic and social impacts, particularly on communities economically dependent on the winter tourism industry, which often have limited alternative livelihoods (Cholakova & Dogramadjieva, 2023). Skiing, as a winter activity, has experienced significant adverse effects from climate change globally. It has impacted both natural and human resources for tourism and has led to temporal and geographical shifts in demand patterns (Knowles & Scott, 2024). The popularity of recreational skiing has markedly increased since its inception in Europe in the mid-19th century. During the post-World War II economic expansion, characterized by abundant snowfall and a burgeoning global tourism market, the modern winter sports industry emerged in the 1960s and 1970s. Presently, the ski industry contributes approximately $50 billion to the United States economy and over $4 billion to the Canadian economy. However, climate change poses a serious threat to winter tourism and its economic contributions by disrupting weather patterns (Palter & Caraway, 2023). Climate change significantly influences the tourism industry, a crucial sector for economic stability in various regions. The impacts of global warming are particularly pronounced in mountainous areas, where ski resorts are especially susceptible due to their reliance on snow indices. This study aims to examine the impact of climate change on snow depth at the Kouhrang ski resort, a key winter tourism destination in the Zayandeh Rood basin.
2. Materials and Methods
The Kouhrang Ski Resort is located in Kouhrang County, Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari Province. Hydrologically, this resort is located within the Zayandeh Rood watershed . It was built as the second ski resort in the country in 1975, adjacent to the first Kouhrang Tunnel. The Kouhrang Ski Resort is approximately 800 meters long and has a slope of 20 percent. Heavy winter snowfall in the Zardkouh highlands, which often reaches more than 15 meters, has created permanent glaciers in this area, making it a suitable space for creating a desirable ski resort. Also, its proximity to population centers, easy access, and the presence of minimal infrastructure facilities such as a connecting road, accommodations, and hotels have added to its attractiveness. This resort is suitable for winter sports from December to the end of March.
Annual data on temperature, precipitation, frost days, and snow depth from 1987 to 2023 were analyzed using Mann-Kendall, Pittet, T, correlation, and multivariate regression tests.
3. Results and Discussion
The findings indicate that, at a 95% significance level, snow depth has diminished by approximately 61% since 2007. The number of frost days has decreased by about eight days (Z = -3.4), and the average temperature has risen by 1.2°C (Z = 4.14). Multivariate tests confirmed the influence of snow depth on rising temperatures and the reduction of frost days. Snow depth is identified as the most critical climatic indicator impacting the operation of ski slopes and winter sports. According to the results of the Mann-Kendall and Pittet tests, the snow depth at the Kouhrang station has exhibited a significant decreasing trend from 2007 to the end of the study period (Z = -2.25), with snow depth in this area declining from 74.25 cm to 28.7 cm. The Pittet test results for this statistical period reveal that the number of frost days has decreased from 126 to 118 days, indicating a significant reduction in snowfall potential in the region from 2008 to 2023. The analysis of temperature data based on the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios reveals an increasing trend. The coefficient of determination for the annual average, minimum, and maximum temperature variables exceeds 90%, 86%, and 73%, respectively, with the most substantial increase associated with minimum temperatures. Temperature is projected to rise between 0.7 and 1.6 °C from 2020 to 2040. According to the t-test, except for the maximum temperature data in the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the results for other climate elements are not statistically significant. A limitation of this study is the unavailability of climate data, such as snow depth, until 2025. Investigating the challenges posed by climate change affecting the Kouhrang ski resort, such as the shifting snowline, assessing its environmental impacts on snowbirds, and formulating appropriate adaptation policies, including the creation of artificial snow, evaluating the feasibility of diversifying other winter sports such as mountain biking and hiking, and relocating ski resort equipment to higher altitudes, are essential areas for further study in the region.
4. Conclusion
The current trend of increasing temperatures in the region is likely to persist. Given the ongoing rise in temperatures and decline in frost days, this challenge poses a threat to the environmental and economic aspects of winter tourism in the region. To date, no research has been undertaken to investigate the temporal variations in the snow depth index at the Kouhrang ski resort and the influence of climate change on this parameter. Such data are essential for enhancing the management and strategic planning of the resort.
5. Acknowledgment & Funding
Authors are thankful to all interview participants for supporting this research. The authors are grateful to the Iran Meteorological Organization and the Vice Chancellor for Research and Technology at the University of Isfahan.
6. Conflict of Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. The authors declare no conflict of interest.
