نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

• جغرافیای سیاسی- علوم سیاسی

عنوان مقاله English

Exploring Future Scenarios for Water Containment in Turkey and Their Impact on Hydropolitical Relations with Iraq

نویسندگان English

چکیده English

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Extended Abstract

1. Introduction

Water is no longer a natural resource but has increasingly become a strategic resource with geopolitical functions. The world map shows the incompatibility of political borders with watersheds, which has caused water to gain a central position in regional and global politics. Meanwhile, shared water resources are more sensitive. Controlling transboundary water flows is effective for controlling power flows. Given the dynamic and complex interactions between water and politics around the world, especially in the Middle East, a region of tension in terms of water resource shortage, it is important. The hydrographic capacity of Turkey is decreasing, which could affect national security, exacerbate environmental issues, and jeopardize the country's food security. This has forced Turkey to control the water of its borders and shared rivers. However, the reflection of these crises can cause changes in objective and subjective forms, such as migration, the spread of disease, the destruction of agricultural lands, conflicts between rural spaces, urban water rationing, conflicts and disputes between tribes, and numerous internal issues in the downstream country. Studies and findings show that the Turkish government has put water mobilization on its agenda to overcome the internal water crisis and respond to internal demands and expectations, which has had adverse consequences on the security of water resources in Iraq. This study seeks to answer the following question: What are the future scenarios of Turkey-Iraq relations in shared water resources with the continuation of Turkey's approach to controlling transboundary waters? identifies the factors affecting the hydropolitical relations between Turkey and Iraq as a result of Turkey's control of water and explains the future scenarios of the hydropolitical relations between the two countries of Turkey and Iraq in shared water resources.

2. Materials and Methods

The present study was applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature. The data required for the study were collected using library and field methods and analyzed using future research techniques. In this study, first, by referring to library resources, important variables on the hydropolitical relations between Turkey and Iraq were identified, and their accuracy was checked through interviews with experts. In the next stage, a researcher-made questionnaire was prepared in the form of an impact analysis matrix, and the experts identified the degree of correlation of the variables with the relevant field using the Micmac software. Five variables were identified as key variables in this study. Based on the key variables and their different states, a cross-sectional questionnaire was designed and provided to the research and statistical community. The completed questionnaires were entered into Scenario Wizard software. The questionnaire was weighted as a pairwise comparison, and the degree of correlation between the variables was measured with numbers between -3 and 3. Finally, a portfolio of scenarios for the development of hydropolitical relations between Turkey and Iraq was identified, and the most likely scenario was analyzed.

3. Results and Discussion

The number of dams in Turkey, lack of proper governance and lack of proper management in the distribution and rationing of water, population growth, and increasing per capita water due to changing habits in water use, Turkey's instrumental use of water, and binding international laws were identified as key variables affecting the hydropolitical relations between Turkey and Iraq due to water control in Turkey. In line with the number of key variables, the situation on the verge of a crisis prevails over other possible situations.

4. Conclusion

Security, development, and welfare of societies are directly related to access to water resources, and reduced access leads to tensions and conflicts over the management of shared water resources. Turkey and Iraq are among the most important countries located in the Tigris and Euphrates River Basins. The hydropolitical relationship between the two countries is based on the structure of Turkey being upstream and Iraq downstream. Turkey, with its geographical, economic, and military advantages, has taken control of the water resources of the Tigris and Euphrates through the development of the Southeastern Anatolia Project. Despite Turkey's development goals, including hydroelectric power generation and increased agricultural production, this project has decreased the quantity and quality of water entering Iraq. Iraq, which receives more than 95 percent of its water resources from the Tigris and Euphrates, is in a weak position due to its downstream location and heavy reliance on these two rivers, and its hydropolitical relations with Turkey are affected by this asymmetry in water resources. Given the arid and semi-arid climatic conditions of the region, the pressure on water resources, and the increasing population needs, the importance and complexity of this relationship will increase in the future. Based on the opinions of experts, the present study identified five variables: the number of dams and water dams in Turkey, the lack of proper governance and proper management in the distribution and allocation of water, population growth and the increase in per capita water due to changing habits in the use of water resources, Turkey's instrumental use of water, and binding international laws as key variables affecting Turkey–Iraq hydropolitical relations. In the following, in line with the states governing the key variables, seven possible scenarios for the hydropolitical relations of the two countries of Turkey and Iraq are presented, of which the "water as power" scenario has been selected as the most likely and significant scenario. This scenario shows the fragile state of relations between the two countries and warns that the hydropolitical relations between Iraq and Turkey are on the verge of a serious crisis. With a view to the climate trends and hydropolitical policies of Turkey to gain more control over the water resources of the Tigris and Euphrates basins, influence and exercise power in the countries of the Middle East, especially Iraq; the research scenario is not far-fetched. Also, in the end, strengthening bargaining diplomacy and optimal management of water resources for Iraq in hydropolitical relations with Turkey is suggested.

5. Aknowledgmant & Funding

·        We would like to express our sincere gratitude to the research experts who assisted us throughout the process of completing this article. Furthermore, we wish to honor the memory of our co-author, Mr. Davood Miroei Milan, who made a significant contribution to the development of this work. May his soul rest in peace.

·        The manuscript did not receive a grant from any organization

6. Conflict of Interest

·        The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.