Aim: Desert tourism, as a subset of ecotourism, offers unique opportunities for economic, socio-cultural, and environmental development, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. The Lut Desert, one of the hottest and driest areas in the world, holds significant potential for ecotourism development in Iran. This study aims to present tangible and plausible future scenarios for desert tourism in the Lut Desert using scenario writing techniques.
Materials & Methods: This research is a combination of documentary and surveying methods in terms of practical purpose, exploratory and analytical methods in terms of method, and in terms of nature based on a scenario-based planning method. The method of data collection in this qualitative study was conducted through interviews with twenty professors of Tourism and ecotourism as the statistical community of research through the Delphi technique. Also, Mic-Mac software and scenario Wizard were used to analyze the data.
Finding: 15 possible situations were defined for 5 key factors influencing the development of tourism in the Lūt desert. Three scenarios, optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic, were defined for each factor. Uncertainties affecting the future of Lut Desert ecotourism were extracted, and three plausible scenarios were developed and analyzed: dawn of the ferrician, the Sisphus dance in the wheel of the sphere, and the niche gap in the shield.
Conclusion: To achieve the desired scenario of development of desert tourism, it is necessary for all stakeholders, including the government and various government bodies, the local community, and investors, to be more flexible in an effective and constructive cooperation than accepting future uncertainties and to make the most of the challenges and opportunities that may occur in the future.
Innovation: The most important innovative aspects of the research include the use of scenario planning as a long-term predictive method for the development of Lūt desert ecotourism.